Work-In-Progress (WIP) Series: Tina Hernandez-Boussard

Predicting Acute to Chronic Conversion in Opioid Naïve Medicaid Patients

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Please note this presentation has been changed to a remote session only.  Zoom Link

The opioid crisis claims an average of 130 American lives each day¹. Despite increased awareness to the potential risks associated with opioid use, recent studies indicate that the number of opioid prescriptions remained unchanged for some populations from 2007 to 2016². National agencies have published opioid prescribing guidelines to face this crisis^4,5. Other stakeholders have focused on systematic interventions to curb the opioid epidemic⁶. However, little is known about how nuanced features of opioid prescriptions may affect patient outcomes, especially in vulnerable populations. The goal of this study was to develop predictive models to identify patients at highest risk for opioid misuse. Opioid naïve patients were identified in Medicaid claims data to characterize and predict patients who converted from acute to chronic opioid use.  This preliminary work using Medicaid claims data provides opportunities for health policy makers to address opioid prescribing patterns and improve patient outcomes with targeted outreach.