Bio

Education & Certifications


  • Bachelor of Arts, University of Virginia, Interdisciplinary Studies (2009)

Publications

All Publications


  • The global burden of disease study 2010: interpretation and implications for the neglected tropical diseases. PLoS neglected tropical diseases Hotez, P. J., Alvarado, M., Basáñez, M., Bolliger, I., Bourne, R., Boussinesq, M., Brooker, S. J., Brown, A. S., Buckle, G., Budke, C. M., Carabin, H., Coffeng, L. E., Fèvre, E. M., Fürst, T., Halasa, Y. A., Jasrasaria, R., Johns, N. E., Keiser, J., King, C. H., Lozano, R., Murdoch, M. E., O'Hanlon, S., Pion, S. D., Pullan, R. L., Ramaiah, K. D., Roberts, T., Shepard, D. S., Smith, J. L., Stolk, W. A., Undurraga, E. A., Utzinger, J., Wang, M., Murray, C. J., Naghavi, M. 2014; 8 (7)

    View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002865

    View details for PubMedID 25058013

  • Can breastfeeding promote child health equity? A comprehensive analysis of breastfeeding patterns across the developing world and what we can learn from them BMC MEDICINE Roberts, T. J., Carnahan, E., Gakidou, E. 2013; 11

    Abstract

    In 2010 more than 7.7 million children died before their fifth birthday. Over 98% of these deaths occurred in developing countries, and recent estimates have attributed hundreds of thousands of these deaths to suboptimal breastfeeding.This study estimated prevalence of suboptimal breastfeeding for 137 developing countries from 1990 to 2010. These estimates were compared against WHO infant feeding recommendations and combined with effect sizes from existing literature to estimate associated disease burden using a standard comparative risk assessment approach. These prevalence estimates were disaggregated by wealth quintile and linked with child mortality rates to assess how improved rates of breastfeeding may affect child health inequalities.In 2010, the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding ranged from 3.5% in Djibouti to 77.3% in Rwanda. The proportion of child Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to suboptimal breastfeeding is 7.6% at the global level and as high as 20.2% in Swaziland. Suboptimal breastfeeding is a leading childhood risk factor in all developing countries and consistently ranks higher than water and sanitation. Within most countries, breastfeeding prevalence rates do not vary considerably across wealth quintiles.Breastfeeding is an effective child health intervention that does not require extensive health system infrastructure. Improvements in rates of exclusive and continued breastfeeding can contribute to the reduction of child mortality inequalities in developing countries.

    View details for DOI 10.1186/1741-7015-11-254

    View details for Web of Science ID 000330056300001

    View details for PubMedID 24305597

  • The State of US Health, 1990-2010 Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION Murray, C. J., Abraham, J., Ali, M. K., Alvarado, M., Atkinson, C., Baddour, L. M., Bartels, D. H., Benjamin, E. J., Bhalla, K., Birbeck, G., Bolliger, I., Burstein, R., Carnahan, E., Chen, H., Chou, D., Chugh, S. S., Cohen, A., Colson, K. E., Cooper, L. T., Couser, W., Criqui, M. H., Dabhadkar, K. C., Dahodwala, N., Danaei, G., Dellavalle, R. P., Des Jarlais, D. C., Dicker, D., Ding, E. L., Dorsey, R., Duber, H., Ebel, B. E., Engell, R. E., Ezzati, M., Felson, D. T., Finucane, M. M., Flaxman, S., Flaxman, A. D., Fleming, T., Forouzanfar, M. H., Freedman, G., Freeman, M. K., Gabriel, S. E., Gakidou, E., Gillum, R. F., Gonzalez-Medina, D., Gosselin, R., Grant, B., Gutierrez, H. R., Hagan, H., Havmoeller, R., Hoffman, H., Jacobsen, K. H., James, S. L., Jasrasaria, R., Jayaraman, S., Johns, N., Kassebaum, N., Khatibzadeh, S., Knowlton, L. M., Lan, Q., Leasher, J. L., Lim, S., Lin, J. K., Lipshultz, S. E., London, S., Lozano, R., Lu, Y., MacIntyre, M. F., Mallinger, L., McDermott, M. M., Meltzer, M., Mensah, G. A., Michaud, C., Miller, T. R., Mock, C., Moffitt, T. E., Mokdad, A. A., Mokdad, A. H., Moran, A. E., Mozaffarian, D., Murphy, T., Naghavi, M., Narayan, K. M., Nelson, R. G., Olives, C., Omer, S. B., Ortblad, K., Ostro, B., Pelizzari, P. M., Phillips, D., Pope, C. A., Raju, M., Ranganathan, D., Razavi, H., Ritz, B., Rivara, F. P., Roberts, T., Sacco, R. L., Salomon, J. A., Sampson, U., Sanman, E., Sapkota, A., Schwebel, D. C., Shahraz, S., Shibuya, K., Shivakoti, R., Silberberg, D., Singh, G. M., Singh, D., Singh, J. A., Sleet, D. A., Steenland, K., Tavakkoli, M., Taylor, J. A., Thurston, G. D., Towbin, J. A., Vavilala, M. S., Vos, T., Wagner, G. R., Weinstock, M. A., Weisskopf, M. G., Wilkinson, J. D., Wulf, S., Zabetian, A., Lopez, A. D. 2013; 310 (6): 591-608

    Abstract

    Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy.To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages.US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th.From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

    View details for DOI 10.1001/jama.2013.13805

    View details for Web of Science ID 000323058400015

    View details for PubMedID 23842577

  • GBD 2010 country results: a global public good. Lancet 2013; 381 (9871): 965-970

    View details for DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60283-4

    View details for PubMedID 23668561

  • Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 LANCET Vos, T., Flaxman, A. D., Naghavi, M., Lozano, R., Michaud, C., Ezzati, M., Shibuya, K., Salomon, J. A., Abdalla, S., Aboyans, V., Abraham, J., Ackerman, I., Aggarwal, R., Ahn, S. Y., Ali, M. K., Alvarado, M., Anderson, H. R., Anderson, L. M., Andrews, K. G., Atkinson, C., Baddour, L. M., Bahalim, A. N., Barker-Collo, S., Barrero, L. H., Bartels, D. H., Basanez, M., Baxter, A., Bell, M. L., Benjamin, E. J., Bennett, D., Bernabe, E., Bhalla, K., Bhandari, B., Bikbov, B., Bin Abdulhak, A., Birbeck, G., Black, J. A., Blencowe, H., Blore, J. D., Blyth, F., Bolliger, I., Bonaventure, A., Boufous, S. A., Bourne, R., Boussinesq, M., Braithwaite, T., Brayne, C., Bridgett, L., Brooker, S., Brooks, P., Brugha, T. S., Bryan-Hancock, C., Bucello, C., Buchbinder, R., Buckle, G. R., Budke, C. M., Burch, M., Burney, P., Burstein, R., Calabria, B., Campbell, B., Canter, C. E., Carabin, H., Carapetis, J., Carmona, L., Cella, C., Charlson, F., Chen, H., Cheng, A. T., Chou, D., Chugh, S. S., Coffeng, L. E., Colan, S. D., Colquhoun, S., Colson, K. E., Condon, J., Connor, M. D., Cooper, L. T., Corriere, M., Cortinovis, M., de Vaccaro, K. C., Couser, W., Cowie, B. C., Criqui, M. H., Cross, M., Dabhadkar, K. C., Dahiya, M., Dahodwala, N., Damsere-Derry, J., Danaei, G., Davis, A., De Leo, D., Degenhardt, L., Dellavalle, R., Delossantos, A., Denenberg, J., Derrett, S., Des Jarlais, D. C., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dherani, M., Diaz-Torne, C., Dolk, H., Dorsey, E. R., Driscoll, T., Duber, H., Ebel, B., Edmond, K., Elbaz, A., Ali, S. E., Erskine, H., Erwin, P. J., Espindola, P., Ewoigbokhan, S. E., Farzadfar, F., Feigin, V., Felson, D. T., Ferrari, A., Ferri, C. P., Fevre, E. M., Finucane, M. M., Flaxman, S., Flood, L., Foreman, K., Forouzanfar, M. H., Fowkes, F. G., Franklin, R., Fransen, M., Freeman, M. K., Gabbe, B. J., Gabriel, S. E., Gakidou, E., Ganatra, H. A., Garcia, B., Gaspari, F., Gillum, R. F., Gmel, G., Gosselin, R., Grainger, R., Groeger, J., Guillemin, F., Gunnell, D., Gupta, R., Haagsma, J., Hagan, H., Halasa, Y. A., Hall, W., Haring, D., Maria Haro, J., Harrison, J. E., Havmoeller, R., Hay, R. J., Higashi, H., Hill, C., Hoen, B., Hoffman, H., Hotez, P. J., Hoy, D., Huang, J. J., Ibeanusi, S. E., Jacobsen, K. H., James, S. L., Jarvis, D., Jasrasaria, R., Jayaraman, S., Johns, N., Jonas, J. B., Karthikeyan, G., Kassebaum, N., Kawakami, N., Keren, A., Khoo, J., King, C. H., Knowlton, L. M., Kobusingye, O., Koranteng, A., Krishnamurthi, R., Lalloo, R., Laslett, L. L., Lathlean, T., Leasher, J. L., Lee, Y. Y., Leigh, J., Lim, S. S., Limb, E., Lin, J. K., Lipnick, M., Lipshultz, S. E., Liu, W., Loane, M., Ohno, S. L., Lyons, R., Ma, J., Mabweijano, J., MacIntyre, M. F., Malekzadeh, R., Mallinger, L., Manivannan, S., Marcenes, W., March, L., Margolis, D. J., Marks, G. B., Marks, R., Matsumori, A., Matzopoulos, R., Mayosi, B. M., McAnulty, J. H., McDermott, M. M., McGill, N., McGrath, J., Elena Medina-Mora, M., Meltzer, M., Mensah, G. A., Merriman, T. R., Meyer, A., Miglioli, V., Miller, M., Miller, T. R., Mitchell, P. B., Mocumbi, A. O., Moffitt, T. E., Mokdad, A. A., Monasta, L., Montico, M., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moran, A., Morawska, L., Mori, R., Murdoch, M. E., Mwaniki, M. K., Naidoo, K., Nair, M. N., Naldi, L., Narayan, K. M., Nelson, P. K., Nelson, R. G., Nevitt, M. C., Newton, C. R., Nolte, S., Norman, P., Norman, R., O'Donnell, M., O'Hanlon, S., Olives, C., Omer, S. B., Ortblad, K., Osborne, R., Ozgediz, D., Page, A., Pahari, B., Pandian, J. D., Rivero, A. P., Patten, S. B., Pearce, N., Perez Padilla, R., Perez-Ruiz, F., Perico, N., Pesudovs, K., Phillips, D., Phillips, M. R., Pierce, K., Pion, S., Polanczyk, G. V., Polinder, S., Pope, C. A., Popova, S., Porrini, E., Pourmalek, F., Prince, M., Pullan, R. L., Ramaiah, K. D., Ranganathan, D., Razavi, H., Regan, M., Rehm, J. T., Rein, D. B., Remuzzi, G., Richardson, K., Rivara, F. P., Roberts, T., Robinson, C., De Leon, F. R., Ronfani, L., Room, R., Rosenfeld, L. C., Rushton, L., Sacco, R. L., Saha, S., Sampson, U., Sanchez-Riera, L., Sanman, E., Schwebel, D. C., Scott, J. G., Segui-Gomez, M., Shahraz, S., Shepard, D. S., Shin, H., Shivakoti, R., Singh, D., Singh, G. M., Singh, J. A., Singleton, J., Sleet, D. A., Sliwa, K., Smith, E., Smith, J. L., Stapelberg, N. J., Steer, A., Steiner, T., Stolk, W. A., Stovner, L. J., Sudfeld, C., Syed, S., Tamburlini, G., Tavakkoli, M., Taylor, H. R., Taylor, J. A., Taylor, W. J., Thomas, B., Thomson, W. M., Thurston, G. D., Tleyjeh, I. M., Tonelli, M., Towbin, J. R., Truelsen, T., Tsilimbaris, M. K., Ubeda, C., Undurraga, E. A., Van der Werf, M. J., van Os, J., Vavilala, M. S., Venketasubramanian, N., Wang, M., Wang, W., Watt, K., Weatherall, D. J., Weinstock, M. A., Weintraub, R., Weisskopf, M. G., Weissman, M. M., White, R. A., Whiteford, H., Wiersma, S. T., Wilkinson, J. D., Williams, H. C., Williams, S. R., Witt, E., Wolfe, F., Woolf, A. D., Wulf, S., Yeh, P., Zaidi, A. K., Zheng, Z., Zonies, D., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J. 2012; 380 (9859): 2163-2196

    Abstract

    Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    View details for Web of Science ID 000312387000015

    View details for PubMedID 23245607

  • Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 LANCET Murray, C. J., Vos, T., Lozano, R., Naghavi, M., Flaxman, A. D., Michaud, C., Ezzati, M., Shibuya, K., Salomon, J. A., Abdalla, S., Aboyans, V., Abraham, J., Ackerman, I., Aggarwal, R., Ahn, S. Y., Ali, M. K., Alvarado, M., Anderson, H. R., Anderson, L. M., Andrews, K. G., Atkinson, C., Baddour, L. M., Bahalim, A. N., Barker-Collo, S., Barrero, L. H., Bartels, D. H., Basanez, M., Baxter, A., Bell, M. L., Benjamin, E. J., Bennett, D., Bernabe, E., Bhalla, K., Bhandari, B., Bikbov, B., Bin Abdulhak, A., Birbeck, G., Black, J. A., Blencowe, H., Blore, J. D., Blyth, F., Bolliger, I., Bonaventure, A., Boufous, S. A., Bourne, R., Boussinesq, M., Braithwaite, T., Brayne, C., Bridgett, L., Brooker, S., Brooks, P., Brugha, T. S., Bryan-Hancock, C., Bucello, C., Buchbinder, R., Buckle, G., Budke, C. M., Burch, M., Burney, P., Burstein, R., Calabria, B., Campbell, B., Canter, C. E., Carabin, H., Carapetis, J., Carmona, L., Cella, C., Charlson, F., Chen, H., Cheng, A. T., Chou, D., Chugh, S. S., Coffeng, L. E., Colan, S. D., Colquhoun, S., Colson, K. E., Condon, J., Connor, M. D., Cooper, L. T., Corriere, M., Cortinovis, M., de Vaccaro, K. C., Couser, W., Cowie, B. C., Criqui, M. H., Cross, M., Dabhadkar, K. C., Dahiya, M., Dahodwala, N., Damsere-Derry, J., Danaei, G., Davis, A., De Leo, D., Degenhardt, L., Dellavalle, R., Delossantos, A., Denenberg, J., Derrett, S., Des Jarlais, D. C., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dherani, M., Diaz-Torne, C., Dolk, H., Dorsey, E. R., Driscoll, T., Duber, H., Ebel, B., Edmond, K., Elbaz, A., Ali, S. E., Erskine, H., Erwin, P. J., Espindola, P., Ewoigbokhan, S. E., Farzadfar, F., Feigin, V., Felson, D. T., Ferrari, A., Ferri, C. P., Fevre, E. M., Finucane, M. M., Flaxman, S., Flood, L., Foreman, K., Forouzanfar, M. H., Fowkes, F. G., Fransen, M., Freeman, M. K., Gabbe, B. J., Gabriel, S. E., Gakidou, E., Ganatra, H. A., Garcia, B., Gaspari, F., Gillum, R. F., Gmel, G., Gonzalez-Medina, D., Gosselin, R., Grainger, R., Grant, B., Groeger, J., Guillemin, F., Gunnell, D., Gupta, R., Haagsma, J., Hagan, H., Halasa, Y. A., Hall, W., Haring, D., Maria Haro, J., Harrison, J. E., Havmoeller, R., Hay, R. J., Higashi, H., Hill, C., Hoen, B., Hoffman, H., Hotez, P. J., Hoy, D., Huang, J. J., Ibeanusi, S. E., Jacobsen, K. H., James, S. L., Jarvis, D., Jasrasaria, R., Jayaraman, S., Johns, N., Jonas, J. B., Karthikeyan, G., Kassebaum, N., Kawakami, N., Keren, A., Khoo, J., King, C. H., Knowlton, L. M., Kobusingye, O., Koranteng, A., Krishnamurthi, R., Laden, F., Lalloo, R., Laslett, L. L., Lathlean, T., Leasher, J. L., Lee, Y. Y., Leigh, J., Levinson, D., Lim, S. S., Limb, E., Lin, J. K., Lipnick, M., Lipshultz, S. E., Liu, W., Loane, M., Ohno, S. L., Lyons, R., Mabweijano, J., MacIntyre, M. F., Malekzadeh, R., Mallinger, L., Manivannan, S., Marcenes, W., March, L., Margolis, D. J., Marks, G. B., Marks, R., Matsumori, A., Matzopoulos, R., Mayosi, B. M., McAnulty, J. H., McDermott, M. M., McGill, N., McGrath, J., Elena Medina-Mora, M., Meltzer, M., Mensah, G. A., Merriman, T. R., Meyer, A., Miglioli, V., Miller, M., Miller, T. R., Mitchell, P. B., Mock, C., Mocumbi, A. O., Moffitt, T. E., Mokdad, A. A., Monasta, L., Montico, M., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moran, A., Morawska, L., Mori, R., Murdoch, M. E., Mwaniki, M. K., Naidoo, K., Nair, M. N., Naldi, L., Narayan, K. M., Nelson, P. K., Nelson, R. G., Nevitt, M. C., Newton, C. R., Nolte, S., Norman, P., Norman, R., O'Donnell, M., O'Hanlon, S., Olives, C., Omer, S. B., Ortblad, K., Osborne, R., Ozgediz, D., Page, A., Pahari, B., Pandian, J. D., Panozo Rivero, A., Patten, S. B., Pearce, N., Perez Padilla, R., Perez-Ruiz, F., Perico, N., Pesudovs, K., Phillips, D., Phillips, M. R., Pierce, K., Pion, S., Polanczyk, G. V., Polinder, S., Pope, C. A., Popova, S., Porrini, E., Pourmalek, F., Prince, M., Pullan, R. L., Ramaiah, K. D., Ranganathan, D., Razavi, H., Regan, M., Rehm, J. T., Rein, D. B., Remuzzi, G., Richardson, K., Rivara, F. P., Roberts, T., Robinson, C., Rodriguez De Leon, F., Ronfani, L., Room, R., Rosenfeld, L. C., Rushton, L., Sacco, R. L., Saha, S., Sampson, U., Sanchez-Riera, L., Sanman, E., Schwebel, D. C., Scott, J. G., Segui-Gomez, M., Shahraz, S., Shepard, D. S., Shin, H., Shivakoti, R., Singh, D., Singh, G. M., Singh, J. A., Singleton, J., Sleet, D. A., Sliwa, K., Smith, E., Smith, J. L., Stapelberg, N. J., Steer, A., Steiner, T., Stolk, W. A., Stovner, L. J., Sudfeld, C., Syed, S., Tamburlini, G., Tavakkoli, M., Taylor, H. R., Taylor, J. A., Taylor, W. J., Thomas, B., Thomson, W. M., Thurston, G. D., Tleyjeh, I. M., Tonelli, M., Towbin, J. R., Truelsen, T., Tsilimbaris, M. K., Ubeda, C., Undurraga, E. A., Van der Werf, M. J., van Os, J., Vavilala, M. S., Venketasubramanian, N., Wang, M., Wang, W., Watt, K., Weatherall, D. J., Weinstock, M. A., Weintraub, R., Weisskopf, M. G., Weissman, M. M., White, R. A., Whiteford, H., Wiebe, N., Wiersma, S. T., Wilkinson, J. D., Williams, H. C., Williams, S. R., Witt, E., Wolfe, F., Woolf, A. D., Wulf, S., Yeh, P., Zaidi, A. K., Zheng, Z., Zonies, D., Lopez, A. D. 2012; 380 (9859): 2197-2223

    Abstract

    Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    View details for Web of Science ID 000312387000016

    View details for PubMedID 23245608

  • Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 LANCET Lozano, R., Naghavi, M., Foreman, K., Lim, S., Shibuya, K., Aboyans, V., Abraham, J., Adair, T., Aggarwal, R., Ahn, S. Y., Alvarado, M., Anderson, H. R., Anderson, L. M., Andrews, K. G., Atkinson, C., Baddour, L. M., Barker-Collo, S., Bartels, D. H., Bell, M. L., Benjamin, E. J., Bennett, D., Bhalla, K., Bikbov, B., Bin Abdulhak, A., Birbeck, G., Blyth, F., Bolliger, I., Boufous, S. A., Bucello, C., Burch, M., Burney, P., Carapetis, J., Chen, H., Chou, D., Chugh, S. S., Coffeng, L. E., Colan, S. D., Colquhoun, S., Colson, K. E., Condon, J., Connor, M. D., Cooper, L. T., Corriere, M., Cortinovis, M., de Vaccaro, K. C., Couser, W., Cowie, B. C., Criqui, M. H., Cross, M., Dabhadkar, K. C., Dahodwala, N., De Leo, D., Degenhardt, L., Delossantos, A., Denenberg, J., Des Jarlais, D. C., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dorsey, E. R., Driscoll, T., Duber, H., Ebel, B., Erwin, P. J., Espindola, P., Ezzati, M., Feigin, V., Flaxman, A. D., Forouzanfar, M. H., Fowkes, F. G., Franklin, R., Fransen, M., Freeman, M. K., Gabriel, S. E., Gakidou, E., Gaspari, F., Gillum, R. F., Gonzalez-Medina, D., Halasa, Y. A., Haring, D., Harrison, J. E., Havmoeller, R., Hay, R. J., Hoen, B., Hotez, P. J., Hoy, D., Jacobsen, K. H., James, S. L., Jasrasaria, R., Jayaraman, S., Johns, N., Karthikeyan, G., Kassebaum, N., Keren, A., Khoo, J., Knowlton, L. M., Kobusingye, O., Koranteng, A., Krishnamurthi, R., Lipnick, M., Lipshultz, S. E., Ohno, S. L., Mabweijano, J., MacIntyre, M. F., Mallinger, L., March, L., Marks, G. B., Marks, R., Matsumori, A., Matzopoulos, R., Mayosi, B. M., McAnulty, J. H., McDermott, M. M., McGrath, J., Mensah, G. A., Merriman, T. R., Michaud, C., Miller, M., Miller, T. R., Mock, C., Mocumbi, A. O., Mokdad, A. A., Moran, A., Mulholland, K., Nair, M. N., Naldi, L., Narayan, K. M., Nasseri, K., Norman, P., O'Donnell, M., Omer, S. B., Ortblad, K., Osborne, R., Ozgediz, D., Pahari, B., Pandian, J. D., Rivero, A. P., Padilla, R. P., Perez-Ruiz, F., Perico, N., Phillips, D., Pierce, K., Pope, C. A., Porrini, E., Pourmalek, F., Raju, M., Ranganathan, D., Rehm, J. T., Rein, D. B., Remuzzi, G., Rivara, F. P., Roberts, T., De Leon, F. R., Rosenfeld, L. C., Rushton, L., Sacco, R. L., Salomon, J. A., Sampson, U., Sanman, E., Schwebel, D. C., Segui-Gomez, M., Shepard, D. S., Singh, D., Singleton, J., Sliwa, K., Smith, E., Steer, A., Taylor, J. A., Thomas, B., Tleyjeh, I. M., Towbin, J. A., Truelsen, T., Undurraga, E. A., Venketasubramanian, N., Vijayakumar, L., Vos, T., Wagner, G. R., Wang, M., Wang, W., Watt, K., Weinstock, M. A., Weintraub, R., Wilkinson, J. D., Woolf, A. D., Wulf, S., Yeh, P., Yip, P., Zabetian, A., Zheng, Z., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J. 2012; 380 (9859): 2095-2128
  • A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 LANCET Lim, S. S., Vos, T., Flaxman, A. D., Danaei, G., Shibuya, K., Adair-Rohani, H., Amann, M., Anderson, H. R., Andrews, K. G., Aryee, M., Atkinson, C., Bacchus, L. J., Bahalim, A. N., Balakrishnan, K., Balmes, J., Barker-Collo, S., Baxter, A., Bell, M. L., Blore, J. D., Blyth, F., Bonner, C., Borges, G., Bourne, R., Boussinesq, M., Brauer, M., Brooks, P., Bruce, N. G., Brunekreef, B., Bryan-Hancock, C., Bucello, C., Buchbinder, R., Bull, F., Burnett, R. T., Byers, T. E., Calabria, B., Carapetis, J., Carnahan, E., Chafe, Z., Charlson, F., Chen, H., Chen, J. S., Cheng, A. T., Child, J. C., Cohen, A., Colson, K. E., Cowie, B. C., Darby, S., Darling, S., Davis, A., Degenhardt, L., Dentener, F., Des Jarlais, D. C., Devries, K., Dherani, M., Ding, E. L., Dorsey, E. R., Driscoll, T., Edmond, K., Ali, S. E., Engell, R. E., Erwin, P. J., Fahimi, S., Falder, G., Farzadfar, F., Ferrari, A., Finucane, M. M., Flaxman, S., Fowkes, F. G., Freedman, G., Freeman, M. K., Gakidou, E., Ghosh, S., Giovannucci, E., Gmel, G., Graham, K., Grainger, R., Grant, B., Gunnell, D., Gutierrez, H. R., Hall, W., Hoek, H. W., Hogan, A., Hosgood, H. D., Hoy, D., Hu, H., Hubbell, B. J., Hutchings, S. J., Ibeanusi, S. E., Jacklyn, G. L., Jasrasaria, R., Jonas, J. B., Kan, H., Kanis, J. A., Kassebaum, N., Kawakami, N., Khang, Y., Khatibzadeh, S., Khoo, J., Kok, C., Laden, F., Lalloo, R., Lan, Q., Lathlean, T., Leasher, J. L., Leigh, J., Li, Y., Lin, J. K., Lipshultz, S. E., London, S., Lozano, R., Lu, Y., Mak, J., Malekzadeh, R., Mallinger, L., Marcenes, W., March, L., Marks, R., Martin, R., McGale, P., McGrath, J., Mehta, S., Mensah, G. A., Merriman, T. R., Micha, R., Michaud, C., Mishra, V., Hanafiah, K. M., Mokdad, A. A., Morawska, L., Mozaffarian, D., Murphy, T., Naghavi, M., Neal, B., Nelson, P. K., Miquel Nolla, J., Norman, R., Olives, C., Omer, S. B., Orchard, J., Osborne, R., Ostro, B., Page, A., Pandey, K. D., Parry, C. D., Passmore, E., Patra, J., Pearce, N., Pelizzari, P. M., Petzold, M., Phillips, M. R., Pope, D., Pope, C. A., Powles, J., Rao, M., Razavi, H., Rehfuess, E. A., Rehm, J. T., Ritz, B., Rivara, F. P., Roberts, T., Robinson, C., Rodriguez-Portales, J. A., Romieu, I., Room, R., Rosenfeld, L. C., Roy, A., Rushton, L., Salomon, J. A., Sampson, U., Sanchez-Riera, L., Sanman, E., Sapkota, A., Seedat, S., Shi, P., Shield, K., Shivakoti, R., Singh, G. M., Sleet, D. A., Smith, E., Smith, K. R., Stapelberg, N. J., Steenland, K., Stoeckl, H., Stovner, L. J., Straif, K., Straney, L., Thurston, G. D., Tran, J. H., Van Dingenen, R., van Donkelaar, A., Veerman, J. L., Vijayakumar, L., Weintraub, R., Weissman, M. M., White, R. A., Whiteford, H., Wiersma, S. T., Wilkinson, J. D., Williams, H. C., Williams, W., Wilson, N., Woolf, A. D., Yip, P., Zielinski, J. M., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J., Ezzati, M. 2012; 380 (9859): 2224-2260

    Abstract

    Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    View details for Web of Science ID 000312387000017

    View details for PubMedID 23245609

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