Eugene: Interview with a reporter

The following are some of the topics we discussed:

CHINESE POLICY TOWARDS NORTH KOREA

The Koreans often describe the relationship between China and North Korea using the expression “Soon Mang Chi Han.� The expression is an image that represents North Korea as the lip protecting China’s teeth. In other words, North Korea is often portrayed as a buffer zone between South Korea (and its American presence) and mainland China. This benefit may, in part, explain the continued support by China of the military regime in North Korea.

This support of the North Korean regime accounts for the harsh Chinese policy towards North Korean defectors who escape to China. In fact, Chinese officials have historically refused to consider the North Korea escapees as refugees and instead have referred to them as economic migrants. North Koreans who cross the border into China have thus been ineligible for protected under international refugee laws and have been repatriated back to the North.

Just recently, however, Chinese policy towards North Korea and its migrants has started to shift. Following the test launch of several missiles by North Korea a few weeks ago, a Chinese official publicly admitted that some captured North Korea escapees were wrongfully labeled economic migrants.

In addition to this, the Chinese government agreed to sign a UN treaty in response to the actions of North Korea. These recent occurrences stand in sharp contrast to previous Chinese policies, and have thus led some analysts to attribute the change in Chinese policy to the missile launching.

However, the shift in policy may have started much earlier. Back in April 2004, the Chinese suspended provision of oil and food to North Korea. At the time, 60-70% of such supplies came from mainland China, so the decision had a dramatic effect on the North. Regardless of the timing of this shift, the important point is that the Chinese government is providing less support for the regime in North Korea. Since China has such a crucial role in the economic stability of North Korea, the notable shift in support will have important consequences for stability in Pyongyang.

STABILITY OF NORTH KOREA

Officials in South Korea are concerned about the stability of North Korea. Over the last few years, the South Korean government has encouraged North Korea to build up its economy. By providing some financial support and by placing a few economic investments in the North, the South Koreans hoped to strengthen the economy of the North.

Some South Korean officials believe that North Korea, as a whole, is in a volatile state both economically and politically. The question to ask is then, “Does the South want the regime in North Korea to fail?� One would think so, but many South Korean officials are afraid of the prospect.

In the case of a complete collapse of the North Korean government, analysts project that millions of refugees would flood the North-South border into South Korea. Officials are thus concerned that the South is not prepared for the immediate unification of the North and South.

PREPARATION FOR UNIFICATION

The prospect of imminent reunification has contributed to the formation of the Ministry of Unification of the South Korean government. The purpose of the ministry is to help North and South Korean to improve its relationship through a series of dialogues regarding economy, culture, and politics. The goal is to enhance the homogeneity of the two divergent groups in preparation for future reunification.

Despite the efforts of the government, officials believe that the peninsula is not prepared for immediate reunification. To explain why the Korean peninsula is not prepared, the situation has often been compared to that of Germany before its unification. Compared to that situation, the present situation suggests that Korea is not prepared for unification on several fronts:

1) Economy- In Germany, both sides were in good shape prior to reunification. However, in the present situation, the North is lacking in stability and even the South is not prepared for the increased burden following unification.

2) Swing system- In Germany, the West helped the East through a Swing system in which payments were composed of 1/3 cash and 2/3 credit. Although South Korea has begun efforts for a financial support system, the system is far too underdeveloped to support a full union.

3) Homogeneity- East and West Germany were relatively similar in terms of culture, philosophy, and systems. In contrast, North and South Korea have strikingly different qualities on many axes: cultural, political, economic, educational, health, etc.

Although unification is a desired goal, it is apparent that the peninsula is not presently prepared for it. The goal of unification has helped build a collaborative relationship between sides that will hopefully benefit all parties involved.